Без рубрики, Research

Extent of Russian users support of a military response to Turkey.

At November 24, 2015, Turkish air forces have shot down a Su-24 of Russian Space Forces, which was a part of ongoing Russian military operation in Syria. One of the pilots died, the other one had been saved by spetznaz and safely returned to Russia. The Turkish side was denying its part in the incident and refused to apologize to Russia, but after a while, the president and the prime minister of Turkey confirmed an attack of Turkish fighters on a Russian bomber and stated that the incident was regretful.

A research, conducted by the Prognosis Media, analytics center have revealed a sharp and strong reaction for an attack on a Russian plane. The public reaction for the incident was definitely negative, seeing it as an act of aggression against Russia. But opinions about the necessity of a similar response are varying. Continue reading


V. Putin’s speech at UN: no one stayed indifferent

September 28, 2015. In New York (USA) on the anniversary of the 70th general assembly of the UN, the leaders of leading world superpowers – B.Obama (USA), V.Putin (Russia), Xi Jinping (China) made their speeches. Prognosismedia analysts had measured  the sentiment of messages written by social media users in different countries towards, perhaps, the most anticipated speech – the one of the president Russian Federation – V.Putin. The primary motives of social media users opinion about the speech can be described in 3 words  – admiration, respect, cautiousness.

Russia: positive and supportive 69%, negative 31%;
USA: amazement 41%, negative and fearful 59%;
Germany: positive 65%, negative and distrustful 35%.
Turkey: support 63%, negative and distrust 37%.


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Turkey. Results with a new outcome

Precincts are closed. Results will be announced in a few hours after counting all the bulletins, but it is already clear that those elections will cause (maybe global) changes in the country:

  1. ruling party of president Erdogan (AKP) got less than 50%,
  2. Oppositionist Kurdish party HDP passes the required barrier of 10% and secures a place in Turkish Parliament.


  • Istanbul — 46.8%
  • Ankara— 12.2%
  • Izmir — 9.1%
  • Antalya — 3.0%
  • Bursa — 2.9%
  • other 278 cities and towns — 26%

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Turkey, explosive finale

Messages about an explosion on a rally are roaring all over the world like a shockwave:


(Translation from Japanese: An explosion in Turkey, on the opposition rally, dedicated to the upcoming elections on June 7th — 2 men dead, more than 100 wounded. Terrorism intervenes in the elections.)

During the period 27.05-06.06 processed — 2 391 169 messages by 523 240 authors.

Distribution of authors by countries: Turkey — 90,42% (Germany — 2,95%, France — 2,04%, Great Britain — 1,12%)

Spread by Turkish Cities: Istanbul — 40.1%, Ankara — 10.7%, Izmir — 7.6%, Antalya -2.6%, Bursa — 2.5%, another 278 cities and towns — 29.3%

Prognosis: AKP — 48,1%, CHP — 20,1%, MHP — 14,4%, HDP — 11,3%, the rest — 6,1%


The Turkish gambit, a close endgame

Weekly Turkish social media monitoring data, from May 26 until June 02:

Situation— stable-active (see chart): public messages — 1 332 718 by 355 379 authors.

Distribution by cities:

  • Istanbul — 45.3% authors,
  • Ankara — 12.4%,
  • Izmir — 9.0%,
  • Bursa — 3.0%,
  • Antalya -2.9%,
  • another 269 cities and towns — 27.4%


  • AKP — 49,7%,
  • CHP — 21,5%,
  • MHP — 14,9%,
  • HDP — 13,9%


Без рубрики

The Turkish gambit

On June 7 in Turkey the parliamentary elections took place. For the first time in 13 years, a ruling party of the current president Erdogan («Justice and Development Party» — AK Parti) is at risk of losing the monopoly of the right to rule and create a coalition.

The troublemaker is recently-founded «People’s Democratic Party» (HDP — «Halkların Demokratik Partisi»), that was founded following the advice of the imprisoned leader of «Kurdistab Workers’ Party» of Abdullah Ocalan. If more than 10% electors will vote for HDP, it will gurantee them a seat in the Parliament.
HDP’s target is to take away the votes from «Republican People’s Party» (CHP — Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) – a strongest opposition party of last years. Many electors voted not «for» CHP, but «against» AK Parti». With the appearance of HDP, this protesting electorate may find a party to vote for.

According to the latest surveys:

  1.      AK Parti ~44%,
  2.      CHP ~26%,
  3.      MCH (extreme right nationalistic party) ~16%,
  4.      HDP ~10%

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