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The Turkish gambit

On June 7 in Turkey the parliamentary elections took place. For the first time in 13 years, a ruling party of the current president Erdogan («Justice and Development Party» — AK Parti) is at risk of losing the monopoly of the right to rule and create a coalition.

The troublemaker is recently-founded «People’s Democratic Party» (HDP — «Halkların Demokratik Partisi»), that was founded following the advice of the imprisoned leader of «Kurdistab Workers’ Party» of Abdullah Ocalan. If more than 10% electors will vote for HDP, it will gurantee them a seat in the Parliament.
HDP’s target is to take away the votes from «Republican People’s Party» (CHP — Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) – a strongest opposition party of last years. Many electors voted not «for» CHP, but «against» AK Parti». With the appearance of HDP, this protesting electorate may find a party to vote for.

According to the latest surveys:

  1.      AK Parti ~44%,
  2.      CHP ~26%,
  3.      MCH (extreme right nationalistic party) ~16%,
  4.      HDP ~10%

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Research

France-2017: start

Long elections, long forecast

In 3 years of analyzing social media for forecasting the people’s will and monitoring the situation development in different regions of the world we usually worked with hours, days, rarely — weeks — until the «hour X».

Now we decided to use our solutions and analytical methods for a long-term important event — elections in France, that will happen in spring, 2017.

Data for May 2015 (May 23-25):

  • Mentions of politicians: 41 948
  • Unique authors from France: 16 755

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Active negative sentiment towards Hollande was detected in social media for example a tweet (and publication) of LeParisien: «Présidentielle : 77% des Français ne souhaitent pas que Hollande se représente

(«Presidential ellections: 77% of French do not support Hollande») was «supported» in social networks by more than 2 thousands people and caused an active discussion— more than 400 comments have negative sentiment towards the politician’s actions.

The most popular (quoted) «political» tweet is a musical remark by LauraMounsi__ — 660 retweets:

(«Rihanna had Obama in her music video, but I cannot imagine that someone from top french celebrities used an image of Hollande for his/her music video»)

Research

Research of Russian social media users opinion about the referendum in Crimea

96% of Russians support the results of the referendum in Crimea.

Here are the results of social media users’ opinion regarding the outcome of the referendum in Crimea that took place on March 16th, 2014

In short:

  • Support the results: 96%
  • Do not support the results: 4%

Research commenced at 22:00, March 16th and finished at 10:00, March 17th 2014. During this time, 188 874 messages by 104 965 Russian users were analyzed.

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Research

Elections in France and USA in 2012

France. May 2012.

During the president elections, we analyzed the whole message stream in social media and using our self-developed methodology made an elections outcome forecast.

Analysis base: amount of unique social media authors who shared their opinions about the candidates — 103 thousands

Forecast Results Variance
  Hollande 52,6 51,6 1,0
  Sarkozy 47,4 48,4 -1,0

USA. November 2012.

As a first experience, those results exceeded all our expectations and elections in USA became our next target. Analysis base: amount of unique social media authors who shared their opinions about the candidates — 5.7 mln. Given the features of USA electoral system, our starting objective was to forecast the result based on the electors ratio.

Forecast Results
(by the electors ratio)
Variance
  Obama 60.4 59.5 0.9
  Romney 39.6 40.5 -0.9

Of course, those inside experiments, other than giving us an ability to accurately define the actual priorities of modern social opinion study development, also gave a solid base for further work directed at creating the new scientific apparatus for analyzing the new reality before us.