Research

Referendum in Greece: OXI vs NAI

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Forecast the reaction of the Greek users of social networks on the question of a referendum on July 5, “Should we accept a draft agreement proposed by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund June 25, 2015?”

During the period of June 28-30 collected and analyzed 268,234 public posts by 123,189 Greek’s authors (Twitter – 81,396 tweets, Facebook – 10,396 posts, GooglePlus – 1,926, YouTube – 1,112 and from 781 other sites, forums & blogs).

On 22:00 June 30 forecast:

  • “OXI” – “No” (don’t have to accept the draft agreement) – 61.4%
  • “NAI” – “Yes” (must accept) – 38.6%

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Research

G7: Obama and the others

Before the start of a summit, G7 is actively mentioned and discussed in media and social media in 192 countries of the world.

On June 6th — 128 300 messages by 65 124 authors from: Germany — 25.39%, Russia — 21.66%, USA — 10.44%, Ukraine -7.45%, Great Britain — 4.61%, France — 3.50%,  Canada — 2.71%

Country leaders mentions statistcs:

  1. Cameron — 30,9%,
  2. Merkel — 28,9%,
  3. Obama — 16,1%,
  4. Harper — 8,1%,
  5. Abe — 3,4%,
  6. Hollande — 1,1%,
  7. Renzi — 0,5%.

Daes not add to be 100% because in в 11% of messages about G7 people speak about… Putin. Now that’s a presence of absence.

Research

Turkey, explosive finale

Messages about an explosion on a rally are roaring all over the world like a shockwave:

トルコで7日に控えた総選挙に向けた野党の集会で爆発が起き、2人死亡、100人以上がけが。選挙の妨害を狙ったテロか

(Translation from Japanese: An explosion in Turkey, on the opposition rally, dedicated to the upcoming elections on June 7th — 2 men dead, more than 100 wounded. Terrorism intervenes in the elections.)

During the period 27.05-06.06 processed — 2 391 169 messages by 523 240 authors.

Distribution of authors by countries: Turkey — 90,42% (Germany — 2,95%, France — 2,04%, Great Britain — 1,12%)

Spread by Turkish Cities: Istanbul — 40.1%, Ankara — 10.7%, Izmir — 7.6%, Antalya -2.6%, Bursa — 2.5%, another 278 cities and towns — 29.3%

Prognosis: AKP — 48,1%, CHP — 20,1%, MHP — 14,4%, HDP — 11,3%, the rest — 6,1%

Research

The Turkish gambit, a close endgame

Weekly Turkish social media monitoring data, from May 26 until June 02:

Situation— stable-active (see chart): public messages — 1 332 718 by 355 379 authors.

Distribution by cities:

  • Istanbul — 45.3% authors,
  • Ankara — 12.4%,
  • Izmir — 9.0%,
  • Bursa — 3.0%,
  • Antalya -2.9%,
  • another 269 cities and towns — 27.4%

Prognosis:

  • AKP — 49,7%,
  • CHP — 21,5%,
  • MHP — 14,9%,
  • HDP — 13,9%

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The Turkish gambit

On June 7 in Turkey the parliamentary elections took place. For the first time in 13 years, a ruling party of the current president Erdogan («Justice and Development Party» — AK Parti) is at risk of losing the monopoly of the right to rule and create a coalition.

The troublemaker is recently-founded «People’s Democratic Party» (HDP — «Halkların Demokratik Partisi»), that was founded following the advice of the imprisoned leader of «Kurdistab Workers’ Party» of Abdullah Ocalan. If more than 10% electors will vote for HDP, it will gurantee them a seat in the Parliament.
HDP’s target is to take away the votes from «Republican People’s Party» (CHP — Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) – a strongest opposition party of last years. Many electors voted not «for» CHP, but «against» AK Parti». With the appearance of HDP, this protesting electorate may find a party to vote for.

According to the latest surveys:

  1.      AK Parti ~44%,
  2.      CHP ~26%,
  3.      MCH (extreme right nationalistic party) ~16%,
  4.      HDP ~10%

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Research

France-2017: start

Long elections, long forecast

In 3 years of analyzing social media for forecasting the people’s will and monitoring the situation development in different regions of the world we usually worked with hours, days, rarely — weeks — until the «hour X».

Now we decided to use our solutions and analytical methods for a long-term important event — elections in France, that will happen in spring, 2017.

Data for May 2015 (May 23-25):

  • Mentions of politicians: 41 948
  • Unique authors from France: 16 755

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Active negative sentiment towards Hollande was detected in social media for example a tweet (and publication) of LeParisien: «Présidentielle : 77% des Français ne souhaitent pas que Hollande se représente

(«Presidential ellections: 77% of French do not support Hollande») was «supported» in social networks by more than 2 thousands people and caused an active discussion— more than 400 comments have negative sentiment towards the politician’s actions.

The most popular (quoted) «political» tweet is a musical remark by LauraMounsi__ — 660 retweets:

(«Rihanna had Obama in her music video, but I cannot imagine that someone from top french celebrities used an image of Hollande for his/her music video»)