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The Turkish gambit

On June 7 in Turkey the parliamentary elections took place. For the first time in 13 years, a ruling party of the current president Erdogan («Justice and Development Party» — AK Parti) is at risk of losing the monopoly of the right to rule and create a coalition.

The troublemaker is recently-founded «People’s Democratic Party» (HDP — «Halkların Demokratik Partisi»), that was founded following the advice of the imprisoned leader of «Kurdistab Workers’ Party» of Abdullah Ocalan. If more than 10% electors will vote for HDP, it will gurantee them a seat in the Parliament.
HDP’s target is to take away the votes from «Republican People’s Party» (CHP — Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) – a strongest opposition party of last years. Many electors voted not «for» CHP, but «against» AK Parti». With the appearance of HDP, this protesting electorate may find a party to vote for.

According to the latest surveys:

  1.      AK Parti ~44%,
  2.      CHP ~26%,
  3.      MCH (extreme right nationalistic party) ~16%,
  4.      HDP ~10%

Towards the end of May, the social networks witness a sharp rise of mentions of HDP in social networks, that allows to talk about the systematic use of social media as an instrument of public influence, same as the elections and events in Venezuela, France, Tunis, Egypt, Scotland.

The chart illustrates the parties mentions distribution for 12 hours of May 27. Detected nearly 60 000 messages by 36 120 turkish authors (high activity, a several times higher than, for example, activity of polish electors in May).

turk1

The most «popular» message is a tweet by the HDP party activist

El ele, omuz omuza, barajları aşmaya! Oylar HDP‘ye, Biz’ler Meclise! t.co/HRWdAmHZEc
Duplicates: 2131
Source: twitter.com post  |  author: Ferhan Ademhan (220.377 subscribers)  | Turkey, Mardin |  27.05 12:54:52

Account data analysis shows that the author used «mechanisms of automatic message promotion».

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