Research

Forecast of presidential elections in Poland, 24 May 2015

Daily forecast is an average between two scenarios described below: inertial and dynamic that set the borders of forecast corridor. Election results forecast at May 24th is the following:

  • Bronislaw Komorowski – 51,69%
  • Andrzej Duda – 48,31%

DYNAMIC FORECAST

Better matching the short, event-rich election campaign or the last round of elections. When preparing a forecast, ratings for every previous day decrease in impact in a linear sequence, what, in turn, decrease the importance of earliest events.

As a result, high sensitivity to separate events (debates, information causes, extraordinary events). Dynamic forecast allows to take into account the opinion of people who are not yet sure of their final decision.

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INERTIAL FORECAST

When preparing a forecast, everyday ratings have an equal effect on the overall trend. Therefore, low sensitivity to separate events (debates, information causes, extraordinary events, rallies). Inertial forecast is based on opinions and statements of people (unique authors) who are already sure who would they vote for.

Charts clearly illustrate that according to the results of social media monitoring, the debates of presidential candidates, Bronislaw Komorowski and Andrzej Duda, according to the opinion of social media users, finished with Andrzej Duda having a clear lead.

inertial2305

17 may: After debates

In the morning of May 18, after the debates, the results prognosis is:

  • Komorowski – 52,4%
  • Duda – 47,6%

Before the debates, according to the forecast, Komorowski had a significant advantage: 62,1% to 37,9%.

20 may: A last hope – pensioners

At May 20th, Polish media actively reacted to a change of Komorowski’s opinion on the pension reform: instead of the minimal 67-year age barrier, he spoke for retirement after 40/35 years of work for men and women. Like this, if a person’s work activity started at 18 years, then the retirement will be in 53 years for women and 58 years for men.

Not everyone did take Komorowski’s promise seriously:

@avvvca: “Pamiętajcie – gruszki na wierzbie obiecać może tylko ktoś kto wie że nie wygra;) To ostatnie podrygi.” – loose translation: “… Only the one who knows he cannot win will offer this kind of thing 😉 It was a last breath”.

But Komorowski’s overall position improved by half a percent.

21 may: The debate swings

Candidate debates – once again won by Duda. The gap shortened to less than 1,5%. Picture: how debates reflect in social networks.

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23 may: Day of silence – the Poles are very law-abiding people

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On 24 may

Analyzed data (from May 12th to 24th) – 295 261 opinions from 40 499 uniques authors from Poland.

Activity data by large Polish cities (by the amount of authors) for May 24th (above 1%):

  • Warsaw – 46,7%
  • Krakow – 12,8%
  • Lodz – 6,7%
  • Szczecin – 3,4%
  • Lublin – 3,3%
  • Gdansk – 2,6%
  • Katowice – 2,4%
  • Zielona Gora – 2,2%
  • Wroclaw – 1,7%
  • Gdynia – 1,6%
  • Radom – 1,5%
  • Mielno – 1,5%
  • Bydgoszcz – 1,3%
  • Mielec – 1,3%
  • Bielsko-Biala – 1,1%
  • Olsztyn – 1,1%
  • Rzeszow – 1,1%
  • Other 161 towns – 10,1%