On June 7 in Turkey the parliamentary elections took place. For the first time in 13 years, a ruling party of the current president Erdogan («Justice and Development Party» — AK Parti) is at risk of losing the monopoly of the right to rule and create a coalition.
The troublemaker is recently-founded «People’s Democratic Party» (HDP — «Halkların Demokratik Partisi»), that was founded following the advice of the imprisoned leader of «Kurdistab Workers’ Party» of Abdullah Ocalan. If more than 10% electors will vote for HDP, it will gurantee them a seat in the Parliament.
HDP’s target is to take away the votes from «Republican People’s Party» (CHP — Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) – a strongest opposition party of last years. Many electors voted not «for» CHP, but «against» AK Parti». With the appearance of HDP, this protesting electorate may find a party to vote for.
According to the latest surveys:
- AK Parti ~44%,
- CHP ~26%,
- MCH (extreme right nationalistic party) ~16%,
- HDP ~10%
Long elections, long forecast
In 3 years of analyzing social media for forecasting the people’s will and monitoring the situation development in different regions of the world we usually worked with hours, days, rarely — weeks — until the «hour X».
Now we decided to use our solutions and analytical methods for a long-term important event — elections in France, that will happen in spring, 2017.
Data for May 2015 (May 23-25):
- Mentions of politicians: 41 948
- Unique authors from France: 16 755
Active negative sentiment towards Hollande was detected in social media for example a tweet (and publication) of LeParisien: «Présidentielle : 77% des Français ne souhaitent pas que Hollande se représente
(«Presidential ellections: 77% of French do not support Hollande») was «supported» in social networks by more than 2 thousands people and caused an active discussion— more than 400 comments have negative sentiment towards the politician’s actions.
The most popular (quoted) «political» tweet is a musical remark by LauraMounsi__ — 660 retweets:
(«Rihanna had Obama in her music video, but I cannot imagine that someone from top french celebrities used an image of Hollande for his/her music video»)
Daily forecast is an average between two scenarios described below: inertial and dynamic that set the borders of forecast corridor. Election results forecast at May 24th is the following:
- Bronislaw Komorowski – 51,69%
- Andrzej Duda – 48,31%