Research

Elections in France and USA in 2012

France. May 2012.

During the president elections, we analyzed the whole message stream in social media and using our self-developed methodology made an elections outcome forecast.

Analysis base: amount of unique social media authors who shared their opinions about the candidates — 103 thousands

Forecast Results Variance
  Hollande 52,6 51,6 1,0
  Sarkozy 47,4 48,4 -1,0

USA. November 2012.

As a first experience, those results exceeded all our expectations and elections in USA became our next target. Analysis base: amount of unique social media authors who shared their opinions about the candidates — 5.7 mln. Given the features of USA electoral system, our starting objective was to forecast the result based on the electors ratio.

Forecast Results
(by the electors ratio)
Variance
  Obama 60.4 59.5 0.9
  Romney 39.6 40.5 -0.9

Of course, those inside experiments, other than giving us an ability to accurately define the actual priorities of modern social opinion study development, also gave a solid base for further work directed at creating the new scientific apparatus for analyzing the new reality before us.

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