Без рубрики, Research

Extent of Russian users support of a military response to Turkey.

At November 24, 2015, Turkish air forces have shot down a Su-24 of Russian Space Forces, which was a part of ongoing Russian military operation in Syria. One of the pilots died, the other one had been saved by spetznaz and safely returned to Russia. The Turkish side was denying its part in the incident and refused to apologize to Russia, but after a while, the president and the prime minister of Turkey confirmed an attack of Turkish fighters on a Russian bomber and stated that the incident was regretful.

A research, conducted by the Prognosis Media, analytics center have revealed a sharp and strong reaction for an attack on a Russian plane. The public reaction for the incident was definitely negative, seeing it as an act of aggression against Russia. But opinions about the necessity of a similar response are varying. Continue reading

Research

Opinions of German people about the TTIP

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP — a planned agreement about free trade between the European Union and USA. Its supporters presume that the agreement will cause the multilateral economic growth, while those in opposition state that it will cause the increase in large corporations power and will complicate the governmental market regulation for the sake of the entire country. The Partnership was thought to be enacted in 2014, but it was suspended until 2015. On January 7th , 2015,  the European Commission  have presented its negotiation texts to the public. The European Commission have started public consultations on a limited number of questions and published the short review of this document in January, 2015.

A research made by the Prognosis Media analytical center have shown the negative opinion of German social media users towards the TTIP initiative:

12_11_2015_Отношение_Германии_к_TTIP Continue reading

Research

V. Putin’s speech at UN: no one stayed indifferent

September 28, 2015. In New York (USA) on the anniversary of the 70th general assembly of the UN, the leaders of leading world superpowers – B.Obama (USA), V.Putin (Russia), Xi Jinping (China) made their speeches. Prognosismedia analysts had measured  the sentiment of messages written by social media users in different countries towards, perhaps, the most anticipated speech – the one of the president Russian Federation – V.Putin. The primary motives of social media users opinion about the speech can be described in 3 words  – admiration, respect, cautiousness.

Russia: positive and supportive 69%, negative 31%;
USA: amazement 41%, negative and fearful 59%;
Germany: positive 65%, negative and distrustful 35%.
Turkey: support 63%, negative and distrust 37%.

30_09_2015_Путин_на_70_UNGA

Continue reading

Research

Germany is under the pressure of refugees

Analysis of messages, posted by German users in social networks between August 1 and 25, allows to conclude, that about 58% of authors express negative opinion towards an increasing number of refugees in Germany from Asian and African countries. Those results are different from previous sociological predictions, according to which, just in July 2015, most (57%) Germans thought, that the amount of refugees in Germany should be kept at the current level or even increased.

28_08_2015_Survey_-_Германия_под_напором_беженцев

Research parameters

  1. Data amount: processed 338 458 topic messages in German language from 118 662 authors.
  2. Source types:
    • Social networks: 93,5%
    • Mass-media articles and comments: 6,5%
  3. Main sources:
    • Facebook: 52,6%
    • Twitter: 40,4%
    • Instagram, Google+: 1%
    • Welt.de, News.de, Ad-hoc-news.de, Derstandart.at: 0,5%
    • Youtube: 0,4%
    • Total: 534 sources.
  4. Message language: German – 94,1%, English – 4,8%, other – 1,1%.
  5. Authors geography: Germany – 82,1%, Austria – 5,73%, Switzerland – 2,64%, USA – 2,19%, France – 1,02%, other – 6,32%.
  6. Age: 18-24 – 6,4%, 25-34 – 16,1%, 35-44 – 20,7%, 45-54 – 27,4%, >55 – 29,4%.

As for the causes of a negative opinion of German people towards the refugees, the following public opinion-influencing factors can be highlighted: political, economic, legal, sociocultural.  Strength of those factors’ influence has been measured.

In particular, a specific gravity of political factors (uncontrollable flow of refugees as a cause of government miscalculations and EU bureaucracy, a thread of spreading Islamic extremism, destruction of social and political peace of the political elites, between the inhabitants of eastern and western territories, increasing right-wing extremism, increasing government control of social media and introduction of penalties for hostile statements towards the refugees makes up a total of 30% of all negative factors.

Amount of economic factors (threat of tax increase, decrease in social security, increase in unemployment, overpopulation of cities, spread of epidemics, increasing financial burden to the the budget of the länder and communes) – 25%.

Legal factors (granting the refuge to all refugees, and not only to war refugees, unfettered illegal entry to the EU territory without the required paperwork, insufficient strictness towards the expulsion of refugees without grounds to asylum) – 10%.

Sociocultural factors (cultural, religious and mental incompatibility with refugees, insufficient education level of refugees,  appearance of ghettos and «No-go-Аreas» in German cities, overall criminalization of the situation, refugees discontent with living conditions in Germany and street protests, violent clashes of right radicals with the members of left-wing parties because of different attitudes towards the refugees, placement of refugees in schools, gyms and other public areas) affect the public opinion of Germans the most – 35% .

Social media users signal about the developing dangerous fractures in German society, as well as inside the European Union. In particular, there is a spreading opinion that the ex-GDR citizens express hostility and intolerance towards the refugees. There are noted enforcement actions of right radicals from the eastern territories towards the refugees.  Saxony is announced to be the «center of violence».  Germans are not content with a position of a number of EU countries that limit the refugees reception. Between such countries is a neighboring Poland, that only accepts the Christian  refugees, while the Muslim refugees are towards in Germany. Social media users think that such position is incomparable with the EU membership.

Most characteristic messages:

Continue reading

Research

NATO manuevers, alliance members solidarity and German opinion about it

22nd  august, Saturday will see the start of the largest since the “cold war” and in the last 25 years military exercises of NATO members’ ground and air forces in Europe. The exercises objective is stated as: «Practicing the rapid deployment of Alliance forces in order to demonstrate a secure and strong Europe». A leading European network resource European Leadership Network (ELN) asks a question: «Preparing for the worst. Does the military exercises of NATO and Russia increase the probability of a war in Europe?». Judging by the headlines, German mass-media are inclined towards the positive answer: «Overture to the confrontation», «NATO speaks to Russia in a raised voice», «A big war is closer than ever», etc.

In spring of 2015, American research center PEW conducted a sociological research in countries that are members of NATO. Research topic: does the people of those countries support an armed response to Russia, if it will attack one of the NATO countries (the Baltic states, Poland): NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but Reluctant to Provide Military Aid (10.06.2015).

pr1

The result was shocking: compared to other nations, more than a half of respondents from Germany, France and Italy do not support an armed confrontation with Russia. Only 38% of FRG population spoke for providing the military assistance to a country of NATO that would be attacked by Russia. Also, in Eastern Germany (GDR) this value is even lower — 28%. Since 2009, when 79% of Germans, surveyed by PEW, supported NATO’s cause, in 2015, a percentage of sympathizers decreased to 55%.

Considering the latest circumstances, did the Germans’ opinion towards the joint military action in accordance with the NATO charter change?

Prognosis Media analysts processed the opinion data from 172.581 messages (news, messages in social networks, etc..) 74.243 people from 200 countries, expressed during the last 30 days towards NATO. Distribution by sources: social networks — 52,9%, microblogs — 31,6%, news — 11,9%, video — 2,4%, other — 1,2%. Age distribution: 18-24 – 10,3%, 25-34 – 19,4%, 35-44 – 20,8%, 45-54 – 23,3%, >55 – 26,1%.

According to the data from 4.467 message authors from social media in German language (Germany):

  • Against the NATO actions: 68%
    • Aggravation of relations with Russia, that does not exclude the military conflict,
    • for Germany leaving NATO,
    • for restoring the German-Russian neighbourly relations.
  • Support the NATO actions: 32%
    • Including the Russian deterrence.

 vs_Pew_Research_-_отношение_к_НАТО

Compared to April 2015, Germans opinion of NATO decreased even further.


Most characteristic opinions:

  • Аn Russland? NICHTS! Die Amerikaner sind keine Europäer, nur weil sie sich in der NATOaufspielen, haben sie in Europa weniger zu sagen als ein Floh Source: facebook.comcomment   |  author: Doreen Smeets   | Germany, Dusseldorf |  19.08 22:27:04·  Der große Krieg rückt näher ! WAgt es die NATO russen im donbass zu töten wird Russland eingreifen ! Und dann….http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/08/20/ukraine-nato-verschaerft-den-ton-gegenueber-russland/# Source: facebook.com  comment.   |  Author: Tomek Freeman   | Germany, Damme |  20.08 13:18:46
  • Fröhlich Gernotwie wärs mal mit nem versuch, die ganze scheisse hier zu einer friedlichen lösung zu bringen? — oder will das überhaupt jemand?…. scheint mir so zu sein, als wollten alle den krieg… zumindest die die regieren… das volk wohl nicht… shame on you «politics» 20 May, 7:05 Comment to a magazine publication Zeit im Bild: 20.08.2015, https://www.facebook.com/ZeitimBild/photos/a.381568636877.161891.182146851877/10153211708241878/?type=1
  • Robert GanserIst wieder einmal erstaunlich, wie viele Putin-Versteher bis -Liebhaber sich hier aufhalten und austoben. Als katholischer Christ weiß ich, dass es unter orthodoxen Osteuropäern die schlimmsten Antidemokraten und Kriegshetzer von ganz Europa gibt — Putin, Milosevic, Karadziz, auch der Großteil der gegenwärtigen serbischen Regierung, die nicht mal fähig ist, mit dem Kosovo friedlich zusammenzuleben, und sich zugleich proeuropäisch gibt, um an den EU-Futtertrog zu kommen. Da muss man nicht nur in Brüssel sehr vorsichtig sein. Und wenn Putin so weiter macht, landet er eines Tages auch in Den Haag. 20 Mая, 14:20 Comment to a magazine publication Zeit im Bild: 20.08.2015, https://www.facebook.com/ZeitimBild/photos/a.381568636877.161891.182146851877/10153211708241878/?type=1
  • Die Politik von USA, NATO und EU hat uns in die gefährlichste Lage seit der Kubakrise 1962, vielleicht sogar seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkrieges 1945 gebracht. Jeder Deutsche und jeder Europäer hat in dieser Situation die Pflicht, der Kriegshetze gegen Russland zu widerstehen und zu widersprechen. Die Einkesselung unseres Nachbarns im Osten liegt nicht im europäischen Interesse, sondern dient nur der angloamerikanischen Macht. Dass diese zur Bemäntelung ihrer Ziele die Verteidigung des Völkerrechts bemüht, ist ein durchsichtiger Trick. Wenn Washington und London von Menschenrechten sprechen, geht es in Wirklichkeit um Schürfrechte. Alle Umfragen zeigen: Die Menschen wollen keinen neuen Krieg gegen Russland, auch keinen kalten! Anonymous 21.08.2015, https://www.facebook.com/100002599376161/posts/838110489618922
  • Vor Russlandhabe ich keine Angst, denn ich weis wir haben die NATO. Daher besteht kein Grund vor Russland Angst zu haben:) Source: facebook.com  comment   |  author: Wolfgang Kohl   |  21.08 08:34:28
  • Europapolitiker: Ohne Russland wäre Nato längst vergesse Source: facebook.compost   |  author: Sylvio Engelmann  1262  | Germany, Erfurt |  21.08 04:57:04
  • Und wer nimmt uns auf wenn der Krieg von der NATOund Russland anfängt? Wir sind dann auf jedenfall mit als erstes am arsch Source: facebook.com  comment   |  author: Gesa Graf  25  |  21.08 00:12:26
  • 1.Wir sind die Bevölkerung dieser Erde 2. Wir wollen kein TTip, Tisa und Fracking etc.der Nato — Wir wollen ein ehrliches, gesundes und humanes Leben ermöglicht auf dieser Welt….!! 3 Wi… Source: facebook.compost   |  author: Jacqueline Salzmann  1121  | Germany, Berlin |  20.08 20:40:19
  • …den Flüchtlingen und ein großer Krieg mit den Russen, damit wir endgültig vernichtet werden. Die NATO lässt weiter an der Grenze zu Russland aufmarschieren. Hunderte Panzerverbände stehen bereits in den baltischen Staaten und der Ukraine um dann in einer Zangenbewegung Russland zu unterwerfe… Source: facebook.comrepost   |  author: Karin Bächtiger  353  |  20.08 20:29:30
  • Ex-Außenminister im SZ-Magazin: Genscher fordert Neuanfang mit Putin …die es nach dem Fall der Mauer gegeben habe, nicht genutzt worden seien. Er erinnerte an den Nato-Russland-Rat, der damals geschaffen worden sei, eine Institution zum Dialog in Krisenzeiten. «Dass davon so… Source: News — S_ddeutsche Zeitung20.08 19:42:00
  • …wären sie nicht da wo sie jetzt sind egal ob Deutschland, England, Frankreich, USA, Türkei, Japan, Russland, etc…. Sei froh das die NATO so Handelt, ansonsten hättest du statt deinem Smartphone und facebookaccount ein platz aufm… Source: facebook.comcomment   |  author: Alex Julien   | Germany, Kiel |  20.08 17:52:32
  • Deutschland als willfähriger Vasall eingebunden durch die Nato, deren höchster General ein Ami ist, hat wohl sehr wenig Chancen Nein zu sagen, wenn der Ami loslegt.PS: Deutschland ist Speerspitze in einem sich als immer wahrscheinlicher abzeichnenden Krieg gegen Russland Source: facebook.comcomment   |  author: Jörg Ripke  562  |  20.08 12:15:03
  • Weil der US-Amerikaner uns als Kanonnenfutter gegen Russlandverheizen will, Was sucht die Bundeswehr im Bürgerkriegsland Ukraine, was will die Nato dort ? Und unsere Leitmedien, decken, verschweigen und manipulieren uns, Beweise gibt es mehr als… Sourcefacebook.com  comment   |  authorAngelko Angelkovic   |  20.08 10:02:23
  • Die Nato hätte hier in Europa Russland gar nix entgegen zu setzen. Das weiß die USA auch. Europa soll in einen krieg katapultiert werden während sich uncle sam genüsslich das ganze auf cnn ansieht. Source: facebook.com  comment   |  author: Marco Zimmermann  36  |  19.08 16:48:3
Research

Who counts our opinions?

usa-rusAmerican research structure Pew Research conducted yet another research, named “Russia, Putin Held in Low Regard around the World. Russia’s Image Trails U.S. across All Regions”:

“In only two nations – Vietnam (70%) and China (54%) – do more than half the public have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing in world affairs.  Among the 39 nations surveyed outside of Russia, a median of just 24%.Putin’s Image Even Worse than That of Russia. A median of 58% around the world hold a negative opinion about Putin.”

Research description tells, that each country is represented by only 1.000 people and with an inaccuracy around 3-4%.
Just try to imagine, you are hurrying down the street to be in time for a date with your lovely girlfriend, and “Wham!”, someone stops or calls you and starts to ask your opinion about Obama or Putin…

Such surveys have always caused many questions from the press, customers and people but, until recently, there were only a few other “measuring devices”. Now there are – social media, comments to posts and articles, blogs, forums, video, that accumulate opinions of billions of people around the world.

Analysts from Prognosis Media analyzed the opinion data of 243.904 people from 109 world countries, expressed in 2 days towards the USA, Obama, Russia and Putin. Some data for the German-speaking authors (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) can be seen below:

  • Obama’s actions were taken positively by only 32,61% of German-speaking authors from Europe. Negative-minded authors make up 67,39% of the overall amount.
  • At the same time, 75,72% of authors are positive towards Putin, while only 24,28% of authors are negative.

VPutinsImage

BObamasImage

According to the Pew, only 23% of Germans are positive towards Putin and 76% are negative. 1000 respondents – who are they? The conclusion is obvious.

Geostrategic foreign policy advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, who is influential and authoritative in the USA, said:
“The fact is, that the Western Europe and, mostly, Central Europe remain, on the most part, an American protectorate, like the vassals and tribute states of old.” American company Pew Research has the same approach. A wrong one. In the age of public opinion expression for people. For any of us.

Gewusst?;-) Putin hat per Gesetz den Anbau von gen-manipuliertem Saatgut verboten. Putin hat Leih- und Zeitarbeit verboten Putin hat Zusatzverdienste für Abgeordnete verboten Putin hat das Mutterschaftskapital eingeführt,. „Mutterschafts-Kapital“ gibt es ab den 2. Kind in Höhe…
facebook.comSonja Engel [214] | 08.08 10:26:32

…sollenüber 200 Tsd. Bürger teilgenommen haben. Darunter auch der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin, der ein Foto seines Vaters in den Händen hielt. Die vollständige Aufzeichnung ist bei Russia Today…
facebook.comDieter Gensheimer  | Germany, Hassloch |  07.08 19:49:39

#Putin ist ein ehrlicher und heldenhafter Mensch. Wenn er stets richtig informiert wird, dann würde er die Muslime noch viel mehr beschützen
twitter.com | Harun Yahya [1984] | 08.08 22:41:06

Friedensnobelpreisträger Obama: “Ich habe Kriege in 7 Staaten gestartet” | Internetz-Zeitung Obama bestätigt in einer Rede, dass er seit 2009 Militäraktionen gegen sieben Staaten selber angeordnet…
facebook.com | Bibi Che [346] | Germany, Hermersberg | 08.08 14:29:22

Die US-Vasallen raten von Geschäften mit Rußland ab: t.co/wu1OxqFO63 #Putin #USA #Obama #Merkel t.co/7Ls4lE8UN6
Source: twitter.com post  | author: Lars Winter [50765] |  08.08 11:32:29

Barack Obama und die dämonischen Pläne der Neuen Weltordnung zur Bevölkerungskontrolle ( … – t.co/yhZkaxTow0 t.co/2emNRtMB0o
twitter.com | AntizensurDE  [81]| 09.08 06:28:45